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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

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Oil Prices Jump 5% As Bullish Catalysts Mount

  • Oil prices were up by as much as 5% on Monday morning.
  • OPEC and non-OPEC producers are set to meet in Vienna this week to discuss a potential output cut of 1 million barrels per day.
  •  OPEC+ aren’t going to meet in Austria for the first time in years “to do nothing” Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners told CNBC on Monday.
Bullish

Oil prices shot up on Monday morning by more than 5%, with OPEC and non-OPEC meeting in person in Vienna this week, while one oil analyst predicts that oil could soon reach $100 per barrel.

The price of a WTI barrel climbed 5.4% on Monday at 9 a.m. ET, to $83.78 (+$4.29). Brent crude climbed nearly 4.78% to $89.21 (+$4.07).

Stephen Brennock, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said that an uptick in trading activity “coupled with tightening near-term oil fundamentals could well push oil prices back to $100/bbl,” according to a research note seen by CNBC. That prediction comes as OPEC+ prepares to meet this Wednesday—in person—to discuss an oil production cut that could exceed 1 million barrels per day, according to sources.

“Those of a bullish disposition have endured a summer of pain, but a winter of hope and expectation is on the horizon,” Brennock said.

OPEC+ aren’t going to meet in Austria for the first time in years “to do nothing” Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners told CNBC on Monday. “So there’s going to be a cut of some historic kind.”

While some sources suggest that OPEC+ is mulling an oil production cut that could exceed a million barrels per day, Pickering seems a more modest—but still effective—cut of around a half million barrels per day. Pickering sees this production cut volume “enough to support the market in the near term.”

Goldman Sachs shares this bullish view, and sees Brent ratcheting up to $105 per barrel within the next six months, with WTI hitting $95 per barrel by the end of the year, with a six-month outlook eyeing $100 per barrel.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on October 03 2022 said:
    The real catalyst for oil prices isn’t the anticipation of an OPEC+ decision at its meeting in person in Vienna on 5 October to cut production by 1.0 million barrels a day (mbd). The reason is that the global oil market has already factored in the fact that a cut could be a de facto one since the organization is under-producing anyway.

    The real catalyst energizing global oil demand is China easing its restrictive lockdowns and opening to business as usual.

    However, the real catalysts are the tightness of the global oil market, the robustness of oil demand and the fast-shrinking spare oil production capacity including OPEC+’s.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert

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