The EU summit on December 14-15 brought good and bad news for Ukraine. Before the summit, most diplomats I spoke to thought it would be easier to agree on fresh EU funding for the war-torn country than to green-light the start of accession talks with Kyiv. Even the European Council President Charles Michel, speaking to RFE/RL a couple of days before the big pre-holidays meeting in Brussels, hinted as much.
But the historic decisions on EU enlargement -- not only related to Ukraine but also opening accession talks with Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina, as well as bestowing candidate status on Georgia -- ended up being the easiest decisions of all, with agreement reached already by early evening on the first day of the summit. So much for all the talk before -- including mine -- about the summit dragging on well into the weekend.
Instead, EU leaders couldn't agree on the 50 billion euros ($55 billion) of fresh funding for Ukraine for the next four years. The best they could do, after hours of fruitless talks, was to agree to come back to the issue in late January when a new EU summit is scheduled.
The tricky part of the enlargement decision was expected to be how to circumvent a Hungarian veto. (Read more about Hungary's objections here.) And, in the history of EU summits, it was solved in a completely new way. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban simply stood up and left the room. Before, during, and after the session, Orban kept repeating that he didn't agree with opening of talks for Ukraine -- but he did allow the other 26 to vote for it.
In the end, this meant that Hungary didn't actively veto the enlargement decision. For a conclusion to be agreed in the European Council -- which is made up of all the EU heads of state or government and defines the EU's political direction and priorities -- a quorum is needed, which in this case meant just two-thirds of the council needed to vote. Why hasn't this been done before, many EU officials and diplomats were asking. Was this a way for the EU to break impasses in the future?
While Orban maintained during the summit that neither Hungary nor the EU as a whole were ready to open EU accession negotiations with Ukraine, in remarks before the meeting he hinted that there would be a compromise. What he accentuated in those earlier remarks was that he was against the "rapid" or "fast-tracked" accession of Ukraine. And with this, he opened up the opportunity for a deal.
According to EU officials I spoke to during the summit on the condition of anonymity because they weren't allowed to speak on the record, that deal was hammered out over breakfast on the morning of the first day of the summit between Orban, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, respectively. That was the deal that the 26 leaders eventually agreed on, while Orban, presumably, was taking a bathroom break.
Deep Background: To understand the compromise, it's helpful to look at two sentences in the EU summit conclusions that the leaders signed off on. The sentences relate to the accession of Ukraine and Moldova, as these countries are paired in the enlargement process.
"The European Council decides to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and with the Republic of Moldova. The European Council invites the Council [of the European Union, where EU government ministers discuss, amend and adopt laws] to adopt the respective negotiating frameworks once the relevant steps set out in the respective Commission recommendations of November 8, 2023, are taken."
The first sentence is a clear win for Ukraine (and Moldova). When I spoke to Ukrainian officials before the summit, what they wanted most was clear and crisp language confirming that accession talks are opened. They got it -- and Hungary relented.
The second sentence, however, seems to already be kicking the can down the road and leaving some wiggle room. To start accession talks, you need to adopt a negotiation framework -- and, with that, you open up the EU candidates once again to potential delays and further Hungarian vetoes.
The European Commission actually opened itself up for this "solution" when they presented their big enlargement report in November. There they noted that they would report back to EU member states by March 2024 at the latest on the conditions that remained for Ukraine, Moldova, and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The remaining issues for Ukraine were to adopt laws to make its National Anti-Corruption Bureau function better; address the outstanding recommendations highlighted by the Council of Europe's Venice Commission on state language, media, and education -- a sore point for Budapest as it claims that Ukraine is discriminating against its ethnic Hungarian minority; and, finally, to enact a law regulating lobbying.
Kyiv says it has already passed the first two laws and will soon enact the lobbying legislation. Addressing the EU leaders via video link from Kyiv on December 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine is expecting the negotiation framework will be adopted in March. That would appear to be the most logical scenario, as EU leaders are due to meet that month for a summit in Brussels. But, as ever with Brussels, don't count on it. Orban was of the opinion at the summit that Ukraine hadn't fulfilled any of the remaining three conditions. And in the end, he has a veto and is prepared to use it.
Drilling Down
On December 20, the EU's sanctions regime on Russia will face scrutiny from the bloc's supreme court, the European Court of Justice (ECJ). First, it will rule on the legality of the visa ban and asset freeze imposed on one of the most high-profile Russians, the former owner of Chelsea Football Club, Roman Abramovich. A win for the billionaire could potentially lead to other high-ranking Russians being taken off the Brussels blacklist.
That same day, the Luxembourg-based court will also rule on how widely applied the EU's flight ban on Russia, which was adopted last year, should be. The EU has banned all Russian-registered aircrafts from landing on, taking off from, or flying over EU territory. That ban also applies to planes not registered in Russia but owned or chartered by Russian citizens. The applicant in the case is a Russian-Luxembourgish national with a private pilot's license who is challenging the European Aviation Safety Agency's decision to prohibit him from flying.
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Comments
The EU has been conned to impose sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict in which no vital interests of its have been threatened.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert