The European Commission's long-awaited annual enlargement report is set to be released on November 8. The release has been constantly postponed, as the report was originally expected to come out in early October.
The delay was due to a number of factors. Firstly, there was a wish from EU member states that the enlargement report wouldn't be released ahead of the EU summit in Brussels on October 26-27, with fears that it could "hijack" discussions on other issues such as the bloc's budget and migration.
Secondly, the enlargement report is huge, with assessments on 10 countries -- Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
There is a lot of ground to cover and EU member states -- the ultimate arbiters in the enlargement process -- have to study the documents before making a decision.
Member states will vote on the enlargement questions at the EU's General Affairs Council, which brings together the bloc's foreign ministers, in Brussels on December 12.
A potential decision will then need to be rubber-stamped at the EU summit in Brussels two days later.
Finally, the enlargement report has been delayed partly because the European Commission has been generous with the time it has allowed several countries to fulfill certain conditions and reforms that Brussels has set for the EU hopefuls.
Deep Background: According to various media reports, the European Commission will recommend the opening of accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
An EU source familiar with the enlargement report who could only speak on the condition of anonymity told me that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wouldn't have traveled to Kyiv on November 4 if there hadn't been "positive signals" from Ukraine.
Regarding Ukraine and Moldova, it's important to note the conditions and timelines -- and how those requirements and targets might be referred to in the reports.
Moldova and Ukraine have not yet fulfilled all the priorities set out by the EU in the summer of 2022. That could mean some sort of diplomatic fudge.
While EU member states might decide to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova in December, the actual opening of talks -- which involves the "screening" of all the EU legislation that countries need to adopt to become members -- will take place in early 2024. And all bets are off as to how long the whole process will take, as accession talks can sometimes drag on for years.
Drilling Down
What You Need To Know: Sweden took a big step closer to becoming NATO member No. 32 when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan submitted a bill on October 23 to the Turkish parliament approving the Nordic country's membership of the military alliance. With his Justice and Development Party (AK) having a majority in the Turkish parliament, the bill is expected to pass in a few weeks' time and will then be considered by the foreign affairs committee in the unicameral chamber.
The hope in Brussels is that Sweden will officially become a member of the bloc around the time of the NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels on November 28-29. But no one is daring to set any firm dates, given just how drawn out this process has become.
Most NATO officials expected both Finland and Sweden to join in the fall of 2022 after having applied for membership shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Apart from Turkey and Hungary, 28 out of 30 countries ratified the Nordic pair's accession bids a year ago.
Ankara wanted to see progress -- notably from Sweden -- in fighting terrorism, lifting an arms embargo on Turkey, and fulfilling extradition requests, mainly Kurds accused by the Turkish state of terrorism.
While Sweden has approved legislation on the first two points, the multiple Koran burnings and Kurdish demonstrations in the country have killed any hopes of a quick Turkish ratification. (Finland "decoupled" its accession process from Sweden and joined NATO in April.)
At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, there was some sort of deal between Turkey and Sweden that would supposedly pave the way for Turkish ratification. Ankara, however, was in no hurry to do it in July and waited until after the parliamentary summer recess ended in early October.
Deep Background: According to several NATO officials I have spoken to, they expected Erdogan to send the bill to parliament in early October. Two events, however, prevented that: an October 1 suicide bombing in Ankara, which the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for; and an incident a few days later, when U.S. forces shot down a Turkish drone in northern Syria.
With Erdogan winning the presidential election in May -- partially on a platform of being tough on terrorism -- the Turkish leader has had to tread carefully on green-lighting Sweden's NATO bid. And there are certainly questions about how much Sweden has done to address Turkey's concerns. Erdogan initially wanted several hundred people -- mainly Kurds -- extradited from Sweden, but last year only four were sent back to Turkey and there will likely be a similar number this year.
Drilling Down
On October 8, the legality of EU sanctions against Russia will be tested as the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice will hand down a ruling in the case of Dmitry Mazepin.
The Russian oligarch, who made a fortune in the chemical industry, was targeted with an asset freeze and a visa ban by the EU shortly after Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022.
Like many other Russian businessmen, Mazepin has challenged this decision in the European Court of Justice -- even though only a few have won similar cases.
Members of the European Parliament are used to being addressed by famous political leaders but not by Academy Award-winning actors. On November 8, Cate Blanchett spoke to the full plenary on November 8.
The Australian Hollywood star, who is a UNHCR goodwill ambassador, has been vocal about helping refugees from Syria and is likely to touch upon the need to support those fleeing the ongoing war in the Middle East.
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