When EU member states finally approved the bloc's latest sanctions package against Russia on June 23, perhaps the most interesting feature was a new anti-circumvention framework aimed at third countries. Although this framework for the moment very much remains an empty canvas, it has now given Brussels the legal tools to do two things: Draw up a list of products made in the bloc that it believes are being sent to Russia via third countries, and another register in which third countries can be named and hence will no longer be able to import things from the EU.
This move will, in theory, bring the EU closer to the "secondary sanctions" that the United States is already applying around the globe -- a framework designed to prevent or restrict third countries from trading with countries subject to U.S. sanctions. And there is little doubt that the new EU tool might come in handy going forward.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have all pointed out that, in 2022, exports of potential dual-use goods -- items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes -- to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan grew more than 62 percent, 83 percent, and 30 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year.
The EU's sanctions implementation envoy, David O'Sullivan, has in recent months traveled extensively to both Central Asia and places such as Armenia and Georgia to hammer home the message that items, or parts of them, imported from the EU to other countries have been found in Russian military equipment and weapons used in its war against Ukraine. A senior EU official with knowledge of the matter, speaking under the condition of anonymity, noted that "we are seeing circumvention. Look at the envoy and where he is traveling. There is evidence that something is happening."
Deep Background: The big question, however, is if the EU will ever use this instrument. The smart money is that it won't, and that the lists will remain empty. Pretty much all of the EU officials I have spoken to essentially say the same thing: It is a last-resort measure, only to be used when all other things have failed -- notably, more intense diplomacy.
I hear that this is a tool designed for O'Sullivan to threaten the countries he travels to with, but nothing more. And people familiar with the topic also explain to me that Brussels isn't at all keen to push countries into the arms of Russia and China. This is the sort of tool that would accomplish exactly that.
As evidence, they point to countries like Serbia and Georgia that, despite their refusal to align with EU sanctions on Moscow -- even to the point of allowing Russian flights to land on their soil -- still haven't faced any negative consequences from Brussels for their actions.
Finally, there is the issue of unanimity, which is needed for any listing under this new framework. Right now, it is hard to see all 27 EU member states seeing eye to eye on this.
Drilling Down
By RFE/RL
RFE/RL journalists report the news in 21 countries where a free press is banned by the government or not fully established. We provide what many… More
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Comments
Despite all these measures which are aimed at crippling the Russian economy, Russia’s economy is on the whole in better shape than the United States’ and the EU’s.
Russia’s GDP is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2023 compared with 1.2% for the United States and 0.8% for the EU with Russian unemployment remaining at a record low of 3.5%.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert
Unfortunately those power brokers through the ages haven't understood the true source of their power.