EIA Sees U.S. Setting New Oil Production Record in 2025

The EIA’s first outlook for 2025 shows forecasted U.S. crude oil production reading 13.4 million barrels per day—a new record for the country. 

The Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report published on Tuesday represents the first peek into predictions for 2025. Those predictions include the United States hitting 13.4 million bpd in crude oil production after continued production growth over the next two years “driven by increases in well efficiency.”

The EIA pointed to slowing growth, however, due to fewer active drilling rigs.

On top of the crude oil production reaching a new record, the EIA forecast that global liquid fuels production growth would slow in 2024 to just 0.6 million bpd this year on the back of OPEC supply restraint before rebounding to 1.6 million bpd in 2025. 

U.S. production of dry natural gas is seen growing at a rate of 1.3 Bcf/d in 2025, compared to the 4.0 Bcf/d seen in 2023. For U.S. coal production, the EIA predicts a decline by more than 90 million short tons to less than 430 MMst in 2025—the least amount of coal produced in the United States since the early 1960s, the EIA said in its report. 

The EIA pegged crude oil prices for Brent falling to $79 per barrel in 2025—a time when production growth is expected to “slightly” outpace demand growth. Its 2024 estimate for crude oil is $82 per barrel. “Our forecast for relatively little price change is based on expectations that global supply and demand of petroleum liquids will be relatively balanced.”

U.S. retail gasoline prices will average $3.20 per gallon in 2025, the EIA said, compared with $3.50 per gallon in 2023.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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