U.S. Monthly Crude Oil Production Falls

Crude oil production in the United States fell in November, new data from the Energy Information Administration shows.

U.S. crude oil production fell to an average of 12.375 million bpd in November-down 35,000 bpd from the month prior. It is the latest monthly production data to be released by the EIA. It is the highest average monthly production level since March 2020.

In November 2019, U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high of 13 million bpd, but fell spectacularly in early 2020 after the pandemic set in.

EIA figures for the weekly production of crude oil in the United States painted a different picture of November production, with each week reportedly averaging 12.1 million bpd. Weekly production shows December production nearly the same, with a slight 100,000 bpd uptick so far during the first three weeks of January.

Meanwhile, EIA data showed that demand for U.S. crude oil-and the petroleum products associated with it-rose 178,000 bpd in November to 20.59 million bpd.

In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projected that the United States would produce 12.4 million bpd this year and 12.81 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2024-with both years breaking the annual record average of 12.3 million bpd reached in 2019.

The EIA's projections see output from the Permian increasing by 470,000 bpd to a record 5.7 million bpd this year-a figure that has been questioned by some industry analysts.

The EIA has estimated that the price of a Brent barrel will drop by 18% this year compared to 2022 levels, with WTI falling to $77 per barrel this year.

The millions of barrels of crude oil sold into commercial inventories from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserves came to an end in the first week of January, and in combination with falling production, could be seen as a bullish signal.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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