è±æé¢æµï¼éçåºåå¨ä»å¹´å¤å£ææ¾å¢å ï¼æ²¹ä»·å°å¨2025å¹´è·è³60ç¾å çä»·æ ¼åºé´ï¼å°½ç®¡å½åéæ±å¼ºå²ä¸ä»·æ ¼è¾é«ï¼ä½æ示åºæ²è§çåæ¯ã
油价已ç»å¨6æåçæ失åååï¼å½æ¶æ¬§ä½©å +éå¢è¡¨ç¤ºå¯è½å¨ç¬¬åå£åº¦å¼å§å°é¨åä¾åºè¿è¿å¸åºï¼è¿å¯¼è´å¸åºä¼ éåºæ²è§ä¿¡å·ã
ä¸å¨äºï¼å½é åºå产åï¼å¸ä¼¦ç¹åæ²¹ï¼äº¤æä»·æ ¼é«äºæ¯æ¡¶85ç¾å ï¼èç¾å½åºå产åï¼WTIåæ²¹ï¼ä»·æ ¼é«äºæ¯æ¡¶82ç¾å ï¼éçä¾åºè¶ç´§ç迹象å¼å§æ¾ç°ã
å¸åºé¢è®¡ç¬¬ä¸å£åº¦å¤å£éæ±å°ç¨³åºï¼ä½æ å¿ç¬¬åå£åº¦å£åº¦æ¶è´¹å¢é¿å°å¼å§åç¼ï¼ä»è对油价æ½å ä¸è¡ååã
è±ææ¯ä¸»è¦é¶è¡ä¸æ为æ²è§çä¹ä¸ï¼é¢è®¡æ²¹ä»·å°å¨ä»å¹´æäºæ¶åè·è³70ç¾å åºé´ï¼å¹¶å¨2025å¹´è¿ä¸æ¥ä¸è·è³60ç¾å åºé´ï¼åå æ¯åºåä¸æå¢å ã
"å ¨çåºåæå¹´å°å¤§å¹ å¢å ï¼"è±æå ¨çè½æºçç¥å¸Eric Leeå¨æ¬å¨æ¥åé èè´¢ç»é访æ¶è¡¨ç¤ºã
"æ们认为ä»å¹´å¤å£ä¾åºå°æç¹ç´§å¼ ï¼æ以æ们çå°ä»·æ ¼ä¼å¨ä½è³ä¸80ç¾å çæ°´å¹³ä¸ä¿ææ´é¿ä¸æ®µæ¶é´ï¼"该çç¥å¸è¡¥å éã
ç¸å ³ï¼ä¾åºæ 忧åéæ±ä¹è§æ¨å¨æ²¹ä»·ä¸æ¶¨
"ä½æ¯å½æ们审è§ä¸åå¹´å°2025å¹´æ¶ï¼æ们ççè§å¾å¸åºä¼åå¾æ´å 严峻ã"
è±æè¿é¢è®¡ï¼ç±äº"ä¸GDPç¸æ¯ï¼ç³æ²¹éæ±å¢é¿çå¯è½ä¼åå¾è¶æ¥è¶æ ¢ï¼å¹¶ä¸å®é ä¸å¨æ¬åå¹´ç»æåå°è¾¾å°å³°å¼ï¼"Leeåè¯é èè´¢ç»ã
è±æ对油价åéæ±ææä¸çææ为æ²è§çè§ç¹ä¹ä¸ã
ä¾å¦ï¼é«çæ¬å¨å¨ä¸ä»½æ¥åä¸è¡¨ç¤º"ç³æ²¹éæ±çå³°å¼ä»ç¶é10å¹´æ¶é´ã"
æ¬ææ©äºæ¶åï¼å½é è½æºç½²è¡¨ç¤ºå ¨çç³æ²¹éæ±å°å¨2030å¹´ä¹åè¾¾å°å³°å¼ãè¿ä¸é¢æµå¼åäºæ¬§ä½©å çæ¹è¯ï¼æ¬§ä½©å ç§ä¹¦é¿æµ·çå§Â·é¿å°çæ¯è¡¨ç¤º"ç³æ²¹éæ±çå³°å¼å¹¶ä¸å¨ç¼å"ï¼å½é è½æºç½²çé¢æµ"æ¯ä¸ç§å±é©çè¯è®ºï¼ç¹å«æ¯å¯¹æ¶è´¹è ï¼åªä¼å¯¼è´æ½å¨è§æ¨¡åææªæçè½æºæ³¢å¨ã"
é«ççåæå¸ç§°ï¼"è½ç¶ä¸äºèåé¢æµè é¢æµæ²¹ä»·å°å¨2030å¹´è¾¾å°é¡¶å³°ï¼ä½æ们çç 究人åé¢è®¡æ²¹ç使ç¨å°æç»å¢å ï¼ç´è³2034å¹´ã"
é«ççå¢éåä½åéï¼"æ们认为éæ±ç顶峰è¿éåå¹´ï¼èä¸æ´éè¦çæ¯ï¼å¨é¡¶å³°åçåå¹´éï¼éæ±å°è¶äºå¹³ç¨³ï¼èä¸æ¯æ¥å§ä¸éã"
çæå ï¼é«çé¢è®¡ç±äºå¼ºå²çæ¶è´¹éæ±ï¼å¸ä¼¦ç¹åæ²¹å¤å£å°è¾¾å°æ¯æ¡¶86ç¾å ï¼å¹¶å¯¼è´ç¬¬ä¸å£åº¦å¸åºåºç°å·¨å¤§èµ¤åã
ç±äºåæ²¹çå®é éæ±å¾å¾ä¼éçä»·æ ¼ä¸è·èå¢å ï¼å æ¬ä¸å½åç¾å½ç¨äºè¡¥å æç¥ç³æ²¹å¨å¤ï¼SPRï¼ï¼æèµé¶è¡è¿é¢è®¡å¸ä¼¦ç¹å°ä¸éè³æ¯æ¡¶75ç¾å ã
大å¤æ°é¶è¡é¢è®¡æ²¹ä»·å°å¨ä»å¹´å¤å£ä¿æå¨80ç¾å 以ä¸æ¯æ¡¶ï¼èå¨ç¬¬åå£åº¦åæå¹´åä¸è·è³70ç¾å å·¦å³ã
æ©æ ¹å¤§éé¢è®¡æ年油价å°å¹³åæ¯æ¡¶75ç¾å ï¼è¾æ¬å¤å£æ80-90ç¾å çèå´ä¸æ»ã
åååæå¸å°å¨ä»å¹´æäºæ¶å使ç¨å©çåå ¨çç»æµå¢é¿è¶å¿ä½ä¸ºå ¶é¢æµçå设ï¼ä½ä»ä»¬ä¹å°å¯åå ³æ³¨æ¬§ä½©å +çä¸ä¸æ¥è¡å¨ã
尽管è¿ä¸éå¢è¡¨ç¤ºæ¿æå¼å§éæ¸ååç°æå产éï¼ä½ç±ä¿ç½æ¯é¢å¯¼çå¡ç¹å°åé欧佩å çå们ä¸å¤ªå¯è½è®©æ²¹ä»·åçå¨ä½70ç¾å 并ä¸æ»è³60ç¾å çæ°´å¹³ï¼å 为èççä»»ä½ç产å½é½æ æ³å¨è¿äºç¸å¯¹è¾ä½æ°´å¹³ç»´æé¢ç®ã"
ä½è ï¼Tsvetana Paraskovaï¼è½¬èªOilprice.com
æ´å¤æ¥èªOilprice.comççé¨é 读ï¼
Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such… More