There is no indication that the Houthis are preparing to halt their attacks on vessels traversing the Red Sea by the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and retaliatory attacks by U.S.-led forces have so far failed to quell the barrage. Since mid-November, the Houthis have attacked 30 vessels, just under half of them direct strikes.
The Houthi aren't willing to cease and desist right now because they don't have to, and the Western response that has included attacks onshore has so far only served to lend the Houthis more credibility at home, which is exactly what they need and exactly what these attacks were all about in the first place (despite Houthi claims that this is all about supporting the Palestinians).
According to Foreign Policy magazine, Egypt's Suez Canal maritime trade has fallen by 42% in two months. Insurers are raising premiums. Ships are taking the longer and much more expensive route around the southern tip of Africa.
How long can the Houthis hold out? What does their arsenal look like, and what happens if the U.S. makes its response more severe? How long the Houthis can keep this up depends to a large extent on how much Iran is going to help.
Earlier this week, the DIA released a report detailing Iran's involvement in weaponizing the Houthis (since 2014), which suggests that the Houthis (for now) have enough of a guaranteed arsenal to continue the momentum of the attacks on vessels. Missiles being used for air strikes and drones are Iranian-origin,…
There is no indication that the Houthis are preparing to halt their attacks on vessels traversing the Red Sea by the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and retaliatory attacks by U.S.-led forces have so far failed to quell the barrage. Since mid-November, the Houthis have attacked 30 vessels, just under half of them direct strikes.
The Houthi aren't willing to cease and desist right now because they don't have to, and the Western response that has included attacks onshore has so far only served to lend the Houthis more credibility at home, which is exactly what they need and exactly what these attacks were all about in the first place (despite Houthi claims that this is all about supporting the Palestinians).
According to Foreign Policy magazine, Egypt's Suez Canal maritime trade has fallen by 42% in two months. Insurers are raising premiums. Ships are taking the longer and much more expensive route around the southern tip of Africa.
How long can the Houthis hold out? What does their arsenal look like, and what happens if the U.S. makes its response more severe? How long the Houthis can keep this up depends to a large extent on how much Iran is going to help.
Earlier this week, the DIA released a report detailing Iran's involvement in weaponizing the Houthis (since 2014), which suggests that the Houthis (for now) have enough of a guaranteed arsenal to continue the momentum of the attacks on vessels. Missiles being used for air strikes and drones are Iranian-origin, according to the DIA. In other words, Iran can continue to deny it is arming the Houthis because it provides technology and parts and the Houthis assemble and redesign. The DIA also notes that the Houthis have four more missiles in their arsenal that they haven't deployed yet, including one similar to Iran's Shahab-3, which can reach Israel.
Maersk has now warned that the disruption could drag out for a year. That disruption affects up to 15% of global trade and 30% of global container shipping. Maersk described avoidance of the Red Sea as an "almost wholesale exodus". As of now, the costs are about $1 million more per vessel traversing the Red Sea en route to the Suez Canal.
On Thursday, the U.S. and UK conducted another seven strikes on Houthi targets, hitting unmanned surface vessels and mobile anti-ship cruise missiles that were preparing to be launched at ships in the Red Sea.
Concerns have also arisen that the Houthis could launch subsea attacks targeting cable infrastructure that would be highly disruptive to financial markets and communications. The Red Sea accounts for 17% of the world's internet traffic, and Yemen's public communications company (which is still controlled by Yemen's UN-recognized govt), has warned that the Houthis are planning a sabotage attack. Experts, however, are skeptical that the Houthis have the capabilities to launch such a subsea attack. Regardless, the markets should be certain by now that the Houthis are in it for the long haul and the market disruption will continue for some time to come.
To read the full article
Please sign up and become a Global Energy Alert member to gain access to read the full article.
Register Login
Comments
Cape Horn is in South America and is the southernmost point of that continent.
Not so in Africa. Cape agulhas is the southern most point of Africa. It would be more accurate to say the ships are sailing round the southern Cape of Africa.
A little geography goes a long way….