At home, Putin needs to be seen to be at war with the United States and NATO - not just Ukraine. This perspective backs the opposition into a corner and strips any potential revolutionary power from them.
It’s important to view the intensifying nuclear rhetoric from this standpoint. Over the past week, the nuclear rhetoric has been stepped up a few notches, with Moscow in one voice noting that the U.S. and Russia have both reaffirmed their commitment to START (the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), and in another voice, showcasing its intentions to build a nuclear arms infrastructure next year.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Washington is poking the bear by not outright rejecting the idea of sending Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine at Zelensky’s request. Right now, the Ukrainians are getting NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems), for which the U.S. Army this week awarded Raytheon a $1.2-billion contract. All in all, the U.S. has sent $19 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the Russians invaded. At the same time, Germany and Norway will ask NATO to take charge of subsea security in the aftermath of the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The line between a Russian war with Ukraine and a Russian war with NATO is becoming more blurred, and that is the intention. The appearance of a war with NATO is Putin’s only saving grace at this time. It’s a careful balancing act, too–between fostering…
At home, Putin needs to be seen to be at war with the United States and NATO - not just Ukraine. This perspective backs the opposition into a corner and strips any potential revolutionary power from them.
It’s important to view the intensifying nuclear rhetoric from this standpoint. Over the past week, the nuclear rhetoric has been stepped up a few notches, with Moscow in one voice noting that the U.S. and Russia have both reaffirmed their commitment to START (the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), and in another voice, showcasing its intentions to build a nuclear arms infrastructure next year.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Washington is poking the bear by not outright rejecting the idea of sending Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine at Zelensky’s request. Right now, the Ukrainians are getting NASAMS (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems), for which the U.S. Army this week awarded Raytheon a $1.2-billion contract. All in all, the U.S. has sent $19 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the Russians invaded. At the same time, Germany and Norway will ask NATO to take charge of subsea security in the aftermath of the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The line between a Russian war with Ukraine and a Russian war with NATO is becoming more blurred, and that is the intention. The appearance of a war with NATO is Putin’s only saving grace at this time. It’s a careful balancing act, too–between fostering the notion and keeping it from becoming a reality.
Putin has no play here other than to render a revolution, per se, impossible due to lack of opposition. He is losing the war in Ukraine or at least… not winning it. The situation is not sustainable indefinitely so something will have to change. His clear goal now is to ensure that it doesn’t change by revolution and based on what we see happening on the ground, he has quashed any chance of a revolution. That, alone, is not much of a victory, of course. It’s just not defeat.
And ultimately, there is only one beneficiary of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and that is China, which has been using Putin as its puppet, while the West has also been working to weaken Moscow for the benefit of Beijing, which may cater to Putin but is certainly not Russia’s friend.
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