Putin Moves to Strengthen His Position Ahead of Elections

Russia has pushed through Ukrainian forces in the new flashpoint town of Avdiivka and has vowed to go further into Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin is now free of his biggest opposition threat - Alexei Navalny, who has died in a Siberian gulag. 

Since it launched its invasion in 2022, Russia has managed to take 25,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory—representing 11% of the country, while Ukraine has not retaken any territory that was occupied by Russia prior to the 2022 invasion. 

Avdiivka has been the most recent flashpoint in the conflict, with Putin now claiming that his forces have sent Ukraine’s forces fleeing in chaos, with the town falling to the Russians officially on February 17, and Ukraine ordering a withdrawal of troops on February 20.  Ukraine maintains that Russia doesn’t have the strength to move beyond Avdiivka to seize the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions this year, though it has admitted that Russia’s troops are outgunning them. 

Establishing the exact state of affairs on the ground remains difficult.

Russian casualties are mounting, and Putin needs a distraction. The best shot at the truth in terms of Russian casualties comes from a media investigation conducted by Mediazona and the BBC Russian service. That investigation is conclusive in that it identified 45,123 Russian soldiers who have died in the war in Ukraine. Those are only those who have been independently identified, while the investigators surmise that the actual death toll could be twice that. 

Casualties and opposition are the two current red flag issues for Putin. Navalny is now out of the way, but his wife will pick up where he left off. Putin establishes power through fear, and it is, of course, the desired intent that he is accused of ordering his assassination. It’s a message to the opposition, and the timing is intentional. And the campaign of fear continues as the military summons anyone who shows up to mourn Navalny. Hundreds of people have been arrested for daring to show up with flowers at memorials for Navalny, and six so far have been summoned by the military, according to The Moscow Times. 

The only question now is whether Putin has overplayed his hand with Navalny, who may have been the last one willing to take extreme risks, or whether all other opposition potential will succumb to fear. Navalny was a unique threat to Putin because of his methodology and his willingness to put himself at risk. He was poisoned by the KGB in 2020, yet still returned to Russia a year later. His work has been the single most significant motivating factor for the Russian people to protest Putin’s regime. Only Navalny was able to rally Russians across the country to protest despite the threat of arrest and imprisonment, or worse. 

Now, Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, an economist, is stepping into the ring, but with very large shoes to fill. Her first move was on Monday when she called on Europe to reject presidential election results in March, as well as advising the EU on a new round of sanctions against Russia.