Tensions Between Israel and Iran Soar

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Israel has shored up its defenses in anticipation of a direct response from Iran following the Israel leveling of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. Two Iranian generals were killed in the attack. Israel's war cabinet has convened, and tension is bursting over an expected Iranian response. In the meantime, needing full U.S. support against Iran, Israel moved to ease the route for humanitarian aid to Gaza via the waterways.

In Turkey, the opposition dealt a severe blow to Erdogan, who has now effectively lost control of key cities. After his presidential victory, Erdogan was hoping to take Istanbul, Ankara, and other key cities, but lost to the opposition following a devastating earthquake and inflation that is soaring at 68.5%.

NATO is moving quickly to avert any catastrophic victory for Russia over Ukraine and the extended threat to Europe that could result if Trump were to gain the presidency. To that end, NATO this week discussed putting forward some $100 billion in consolidated funds for Ukraine by July. (It remains unclear whether the military alliance can actually commit this amount). They also discussed the possibility of assigning collective responsibility to all 32 alliance members for the U.S.-led Ramstein military aid support group, taking some of the onus off the United States. The Ramsetin group coordinates weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The White House has pushed back some on the Ramstein part of the proposal, indicating hesitation to give up the lead. In a Thursday interview, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that while Russia-NATO relations were worsening, Moscow wasn't planning a full-on conflict with the Western military alliance. However, on the same day, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia and NATO were now in a state of "direct conflict". Germany is on full alert mode, rebuilding its army now to be "war-ready".

The luxury Tripoli residence of an advisor and nephew of the interim Libyan prime minister (for the Western Government of National Accord), Dbeibah, was targeted in a rocket-propelled grenade attack over the past weekend, though no casualties were reported and damage was not critical. It is likely that the attack is a warning sent to Dbeibah's nephew, Ibrahim Al Dbeibah, who played a role in the recent ousting of Libyan Oil Minister Mohamed Aoun last week. Aoun was replaced by Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek. Aoun is being investigated pending accusations on one side of mismanagement and oil smuggling. The other side of this story, which has the support of the Tripoli-based High Council of State, is that Auon was not cooperating on suspicious deals. They accuse Dbeibah of orchestrating this all in advance and having a replacement ready who would be malleable and cooperative on any deal.

Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, led by Russian Novatek, is said to be scaling back due to the lack of availability of ice-class tankers and redirecting its efforts to a project at the port of Murmansk, which does not require ice-class tankers. This will affect Russia's ability to replace sanctioned pipeline gas exports to Europe with LNG exports. 

Discovery & Development

Saudi Aramco awarded EPC contracts worth $7.7 billion to expand the processing capacity of the Fadhili gas plant from 2.5 bscfd to 4 bscfd. The expansion is due to be completed by November 2027. The contracts went to Samsung Engineering, GS Engineering & Construction Corporation, and Nesma & Partners-the latter of which Saudi Arabi's PIF has a stake in. The move is in line with Saudi Arabia's goal of increasing its gas production by more than 60% from 2021 levels by 2030.

Private equity group Chatterjee Group is looking for local and international companies to partner with its majority-owned petrochem firm India's Haldia Petrochemicals LTD (HPL) to build a $10 billion oil-to-chemical project in southern India. The project would be capable of producing 3.5 million metric tons per year of ethylene and propylene by 2029. 

Australia's 88 Energy Limited confirmed a light oil discovery at Hickory-1, which is in Project Phoenix on Alaska's North Slope. Hickory-1 is located adjacent to the Trans Alaska Pipeline. 88 Energy has a 75% stake and is the operator.  The company has hailed the development as a milestone, with it being the first successful flow of oil to the surface achieved from its Alaska projects.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

London-based E&P company Panoro Energy has reached a deal with Equatorial Guinea for the award of an offshore block. Panoro signed the deal with Equatorial Guinea's NOC and the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons to finalize a PSC for Block EG-23. The block is about 600 km2 in water depths of up to 100 meters. It is next to the Alba gas and condensate field. Panoro estimates that its participating interest in the block will be 80% at first after PSC has been awarded. 

SLB will acquire rival OFS provider ChampionX for $7.8 billion in an all-stock deal. The deal values ChampionX at $40.59 per share-a premium of 15% over the April 1 closing price. The deal would bolster SLB's oil and gas production and recovery work, which is less cyclical than initial drilling as drillers look to make the most out of existing wells and spend less on drilling and fracking. The deal would give SLB a stronger position within North America. 

BlackRock and KKR & CO. sold their 40% stake in Adnoc's oil pipeline network to Abu Dhabi-based Lunate, just five years after purchasing the asset. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the stake sale could generate $4 billion for the duo.