The Israel-Hamas War Remains Contained... For Now

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

The frontier between Lebanon and Israel has become an intense second front in the Hamas-Israel conflict, which threatens to intensify though Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Nasrallah avoided calling for an escalation of war with Israel in his speech last Friday. In the meantime, Israel has agreed to 4-hour daily ceasefires to allow for humanitarian aid in Gaza, while at the same time striking a hospital complex on Thursday, where it claims Hamas is operating. Israel also killed 14 people in the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank. The U.S. struck a weapons facility in Syria in a pre-emptive attack on Iranian-backed militia forces targeting U.S. bases there.

The European Commission this week handed Ukraine a diplomatic victory by recommending that the EU invite Kyiv to begin accession talks. Talks would start formally as soon as Ukraine meets the remaining conditions bringing it in line with EU standards. The deal is also for Moldova. While the Commission has recommended the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia will be granted candidate status (a step further than Ukraine) and Bosnia-Herzegovina was also recommended for the opening of accession negotiations. It’s still a long road, and this is mostly a headline victory for the time being.

Ukraine assassinated a member of the pro-Moscow Luhansk regional parliament in a car bomb attack on Wednesday. Kyiv took responsibility for the assassination in a military intelligence statement. The regional occupation leader, Mikhail Filiponenko, was also a former militia leader.

In Libya, concerns are growing over the Russian president’s moves to establish himself there after the Wagner mutiny. Russia now appears to be planning to set up a military base in Libya. An Arab media source claims that the Libyan National Army’s General Haftar has denied cutting any deal with Russia to set up a military base in the country’s east. Instead, the reports claim that Haftar is wrangling for Russian air defense systems to protect against the rival government in Tripoli, which is backed by Turkey.

Discovery & Development

The start-up of Kosmos Energy and BP’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas project offshore Senegal and Mauritania will likely be pushed back into the 2nd quarter of next year. BP said last week that the project was 90% complete with production starting in Q1, but Kosmos said this week that startup may not happen until Q2. FPSO for the project is on its way to the field, but won’t arrive until after the start of the year. Kosmos holds a 26.8% stake in the project, while BP holds a 56% stake and is the operator.

Pemex and New Fortress Energy will no longer work together to develop Mexico’s first deepwater natural gas project after the two scrapped a signed agreement. Pemex still plans on developing the Lakach field in the GoM, but they are courting other companies. The Lakach field holds as much as 900 bcf of gas. Pemex halted the project last month after New Fortress demanded unfavorable terms from Pemex–now the breakup is official.

Petronas and ExxonMobil have discovered oil in Suriname with the Roystonea-1 exploration well in Block 52. Petronas holds a 50% stake. The well is 185 miles from shore. It’s Block 52’s second discovery as Suriname looks to make it as successful as Guyana.

Also on the Suriname front, Staatsolie has opened up bidding for 11 offshore areas in the country, known as the SHO 2 Bid Round. The blocks up for grabs are in shallow and nearshore areas and lie south of the recent Block 58 discoveries. Bids are required by May 31 of next year. Attracting oil investments and developing its oil industry is critical for the country that has 70% of its people living below the poverty line and runaway inflation.

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is still not close to startup, although six million barrels of crude are expected to be received by the refinery in December. Still, it will likely be months before commercial activity commences.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Equinor is looking to sell a 20% stake in Rosebank oil development in the British North Sea, possibly for $1.5B if oil prices hold. It currently has an 80% stake in the development after snapping up an additional 40% from Suncor Energy earlier this year. The British government approved Equinor and its partner Ithaca Energy to develop Rosebank in late September. Equinor is operator. Costs for the project are expected to hit $3.8B.

Canada’s Crescent Point Energy has agreed to acquire Hammerhead Energy in a cash and stock deal valued at $1.86B in a move that would boost Crescent’s prowess in the Montney shale play. The deal would create Canada’s 7th largest energy producer. Crescent’s 2024 production forecast is between 200,000 bpd and 208,000 bpd.

Venezuela has signed a deal with French driller Etablissements Maurel & Prom SA that would triple production now that the U.S. has lightened up on sanctions. The project will increase oil and gas production in Lake Maracaibo and set conditions to repay $914B in outstanding debt owed to M&P’s local subsidiary.

BlackRock will invest $550 million in Occidental’s carbon capture project in West Texas. It is the largest project designed to suck carbon dioxide directly out of the air and will likely be seen as a test for all other direct carbon capture projects that come after it.