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Uncertainty Surrounds Oil Demand Growth In 2024

1. 2024 Demand Outlook Remains Murky as Forecasters Contradict One Another

- As political narratives continue to shape the oil market’s sentiment about next year, two leading international organizations – the IEA and OPEC – have been holding widely different views about 2024 growth.

- In its most recent oil market report, OPEC reiterated its expectation of world oil demand growing by 2.25 million b/d in 2024, only slightly lower than this year’s 2.44 million b/d, whilst the IEA expects a mere 880,000 b/d.

- A Reuters survey of 40 economists and analysts found that the average Brent prediction for 2024 came in at $86.62 per barrel, only a slight uptick compared to this year’s $84-85 per barrel range.

- China, India, and Brazil are expected to be the main drivers of crude demand growth next year, whilst the United States is set for its first year-on-year demand decline in the post-COVID period, falling to 19.9 million b/d.

2. US Natural Gas Output Defies Lukewarm Drilling Activity

- US natural gas production has been robust in September-October despite a significant slowdown in gas-focused drilling, averaging 101.7 BCf per day in October, only a tad below the 2023 monthly average high of 102 BCf/d.

- Injections in natural gas storage have been trending above average in October, with the latest EIA data putting gas stocks at 3,779 BCf (up 79 Bcf since the previous week ending October 20 and…

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