OPEC Estimates Oil Output Will Fall Among Non-Member States

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report believes that oil production will decline in non-member countries this year.

According to the cartel’s latest analysis on the 13th of June, non-OPEC output estimates compared to the previous study in May remain unchanged, with production expected to fall by 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 2015 and reach a total of 56.4 million bpd by the end of 2016.

Nevertheless, production prognostications vary from region to region. OECD Americas are expected to suffer the greatest yearly loss of 480,000 bpd in 2016. OPEC believes this change will arise due to heavier decline in Mexico, and lower production in the U.S. and Canada.

Higher-than-expected first-quarter output from Great Britain will help to lessen anticipated losses for the OECD Europe area from 80,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd. Production outages in Ghana have helped to drive African oil supply to an average of 2.31 million bpd, while Middle Eastern supplies are expected to dip by 40,000 bpd to 1.23 million bpd.

Production among the thirteen member countries of OPEC dropped in May to 32.36 million bpd, a decrease of 100,000 bpd, following declines in supply from Nigeria, Venezuela and Iraq.

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Global oil demand, meanwhile, is expected to rise by 1.2 million bpd this year to 94.18 million bpd with India leading the way.

Representatives of OPEC states meeting in Vienna earlier this month opted not to set a production target as outgoing Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri claimed that more time is needed to agree to a new production ceiling. Discussions over production limits have led to tension among OPEC members, chiefly between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

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