Bullish Sentiment Has Taken Hold of the Oil Market

Sentiment in oil markets is undeniably bullish, with WTI and Brent on course to post yet another weekly gain.

Friday, July 5th, 2024

Whilst market activity was relatively slim with US markets closed for Independence Day holidays, the triple combination of lower US crude, gasoline and diesel inventories have instilled hope in the market that summer demand wouldn’t be that bad after all. Amidst increasing optimism for US interest rate cuts in September, crude is set for another weekly gain with ICE Brent ending the week above $87 per barrel. 

Wildfires Threaten Canada’s Production Again. Canada’s oil major Suncor Energy (TSO:SU) has shut down its 215,000 b/d Firebag oil sands site in Alberta due to wildfires 5 miles away, with July expected to see an extended period of hot and dry weather exceeding 86°F.

Middle Eastern NOCs Fight for Santos. Amidst reports that Saudi Aramco could be interested, the UAE’s national oil firm ADNOC has also expressed readiness to bid for Australian oil and gas company Santos (ASX:STO) after the latter’s merger talks with Woodside failed to materialize. 

Traders Lose Hope on Nigeria’s Gasoline Debts. Nigeria’s overall debt to suppliers of gasoline has exceeded $6 billion, doubling in less than four months, as the country’s national oil company NNPC was forced to cap runaway prices after the Tinubu government ended fuel subsidies last year. 

Bolivia Seeks Russian Help to End Fuel Crisis. Bolivia’s state-run energy firm YPFB is looking to attract investment into its oil and gas sector, with gas production halving in a decade and oil output at its lowest since the 1990s, just as Russia started to supply the country with diesel. 

Saudi Arabia Targets 60% Rise in Gas Output. Saudi Aramco plans to ramp up its natural gas production by 60% by the end of this decade, currently producing around 11 billion cubic feet/day, thanks to the $100 billion Jafurah project but also investments into LNG operations abroad. 

Venezuela Keeps Crude Production Steady. Defying the White House’s snapback of sanctions, Venezuela managed to slightly increase its oil production last month to 922,000 b/d, up from 912,000 b/d in May, thanks to increasing activity in new drilling and well workovers. 

Alaska Sues the Biden Administration. The state of Alaska is suing the Biden administration over its recent decision to restrict access to drilling and mining in the National Petroleum Reserve (NPR-A) of Alaska, citing regulatory overreach and lack of congressional consultation. 

Metals Futures Markets Heat Up. Average daily volumes of futures and options traded on the London Metal Exchange posted a 10-year high of 730,385 lots per day in Q2 2024, soaring 27% year-over-year, with nickel leading the way and copper coming in second place. 

GM Pays Hefty Fine for Misreported Emissions. US carmaker General Motors (NYSE:GM) was fined with a $145.8 million penalty and forfeit credits worth hundreds of millions of dollars after a government probe found that 2012-2018 model year cars were emitting 10% more CO2 than reported. 

European Majors Are Fleeing West Africa. Nigeria’s upstream regulator NUPRC approved the sale of ENI’s (BIT:ENI) local unit to regional producer Oando and the divestment of Equinor’s (NYSE:EQNR) stakes in block OML 128 and the Agbami field to unknown Mauritius-based company Odinmim.

Libya’s Oil Minister Steps Down Again. Libya’s oil minister Mohamed Oun has “temporarily” stepped down from his position as Prime Minister Dbeibeh appointed his deputy to the post, with oil investors increasingly fearful over the fate of the landmark 2024 licensing round. 

Shell Takes Huge Impairments. Shell announced it would take an impairment charge of up to $2 billion after the sale of its Singapore refinery to Glencore and the recently announced suspension of construction at the 820,000 mtpa biofuel plant in Rotterdam, citing weak market conditions. 

Hurricane Beryl Slows Down Before US Landfall. Hurricane Beryl, having wreaked havoc on Jamaica, is expected to shift northwards and reach the Texas coast early next week, but by that time it is not expected to damage US Gulf platforms as Beryl already weakened to a Category 2 hurricane.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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