Putin has failed to temper Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s private mercenary group, Wagner. In fact, Prigozhin is now becoming a global household name, finding himself in the media spotlight more frequently even than Putin. He is a clear and present threat to the Russian regime’s longevity at this point.
This week, Prigozhin went public with some numbers that ring loudly in the corridors of the Kremlin. He said that 20,000 Wagner soldiers (many of them prisoner recruits) had been killed in the battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine - the key flashpoint of this phase of the war. In all, for the battle of Bakhmut, Wagner says it recruited 50,000 men from Russian prisons - 20% of whom have been killed. Releasing this information may not make Wagner look good in terms of its military prowess, but what it does is reveal losses that Moscow has either been doctoring or withholding entirely. Prigozhin is laying everything bare without Putin’s blessing.
Prigozhin is also taking credit for what he claimed over the past weekend was his successful capture of Bakhmut. Last Saturday, he claimed to have fully taken Bakhmut, though Ukrainian officials at the time denied this.
His claim of victory in Bakhmut was followed by two more brazen statements. First, Prigozhin said that Wagner would hand control of Bakhmut to the Russian Defense Ministry on June 1st. But how he qualified that was a direct challenge to Putin: If Wagner cannot hand over its Bakhmut positions…
Putin has failed to temper Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s private mercenary group, Wagner. In fact, Prigozhin is now becoming a global household name, finding himself in the media spotlight more frequently even than Putin. He is a clear and present threat to the Russian regime’s longevity at this point.
This week, Prigozhin went public with some numbers that ring loudly in the corridors of the Kremlin. He said that 20,000 Wagner soldiers (many of them prisoner recruits) had been killed in the battle for Bakhmut in Ukraine - the key flashpoint of this phase of the war. In all, for the battle of Bakhmut, Wagner says it recruited 50,000 men from Russian prisons - 20% of whom have been killed. Releasing this information may not make Wagner look good in terms of its military prowess, but what it does is reveal losses that Moscow has either been doctoring or withholding entirely. Prigozhin is laying everything bare without Putin’s blessing.
Prigozhin is also taking credit for what he claimed over the past weekend was his successful capture of Bakhmut. Last Saturday, he claimed to have fully taken Bakhmut, though Ukrainian officials at the time denied this.
His claim of victory in Bakhmut was followed by two more brazen statements. First, Prigozhin said that Wagner would hand control of Bakhmut to the Russian Defense Ministry on June 1st. But how he qualified that was a direct challenge to Putin: If Wagner cannot hand over its Bakhmut positions to the Defense Ministry because the Russian army is not prepared, “this means that PMC Wagner has risen to a level higher than the Russian army”. Taking things even further, Prigozhin stated: “If they cannot take over, then the persons concerned must shoot themselves”, adding that Wagner is not just fighting Ukraine, it’s fighting Russian bureaucracy. (Wagner started the withdrawal process on Thursday).
The second challenge to Putin came later in the week when Prigozhin not only praised Ukraine’s army, suggesting it was better organized than Russia’s but also warned of a 1917-style revolution at home. Speaking to a pro-Russian blogger, Prigozhin said a revolution would be the result of military divisions and mounting losses (hence his release of numbers of killed in battle). “First the soldiers will stand up, and after that–their loved ones will rise up,” he said.
Prigozhin has more political capital now following an embarrassing incident that saw anti-Putin Russians infiltrate Belgorod, a Russian city on the border with Ukraine. Prigozhin has latched onto the fact that this armed group entered Belgorod undetected and managed to film its subversive activities without interference of any kind.
At this point, Progozhin could be a candidate for poisoning (Russia’s time-honored method of assassination) but remains safe for the time being due to the power he has accumulated and the necessity of his forces in Ukraine.
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