Republicans Pressure Biden to Deliver Weapons to Israel

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

The US House of Representatives (Republican-led) has now passed a bill to force Biden to deliver weapons to Israel after he postponed bomb shipments to force Netanyahu’s hand over civilian deaths. Tel Aviv isn’t budging, and the House bill has a low probability of becoming law. It’s more of a barometer of the intensity of the backlash over the Israel-Hamas conflict playing out in the corridors of DC and on college campuses across the country. As of the time of writing late on Thursday, Israeli tanks had advanced to the center of the northern Gaza town of Jabalia in a standoff with Hamas. Simultaneously, in southern Gaza, Israel continued to shell Rafah but did not make a move to push further into the city.

In another reverberation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Iraq and Jordan are planning to restart oil talks. Iraq typically supplies Jordan with oil, but frequent disputes often put the deal on pause. Most recently, Iraq suspended exports after Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles bound for Israel. We are not highly confident that talks will proceed as planned given another Jordanian move that will irk some high-level figures in Baghdad: On Wednesday this week, Jordan foiled an attempt by an Iranian-led group to smuggle weapons into the kingdom for sabotage. 

In Brazil, President Lula da Silva shook up the leadership of state-run Petrobras this week, dismissing CEO Jean Paul Prates and appointing Magda Chambriand in his place. He then reportedly ordered the new CEO to accelerate investments in refineries and natural gas expansion. Petrobras shares nosedived immediately following news of the dismissal. As of Thursday’s close, shares had lost over 12% this week as investors digested the development. Either it’s going to be an expansion boost for Petrobras, which reported dire earnings this week (38% drop in profits for Q1), or it’s going to be played out as a significant hit to investor confidence because it lends uncertainty to how or when the president may intervene in the future. 

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Chevron is planning to sell its remaining UK North Sea oil and gas assets, marking its exit from the region after more than 55 years. This decision is part of Chevron's broader strategy, which includes the $53 billion acquisition of Hess and up to $15 billion in asset sales globally. The divestment includes a 19.4% stake in the BP-operated Clair oilfield and interests in the Sullom Voe oil terminal and pipeline systems. This move aligns with the trend of major oil companies withdrawing from the aging North Sea basin. The sale process is expected to begin in June and could raise up to $1 billion.

Equinor and Norwegian state-owned Petoro have agreed to swap assets to align their ownership in key fields, enhancing long-term value creation. Equinor will increase its stakes in the Heidrun field and Noatun discovery, while reducing its interests in Tyrihans, Castberg, Carmen, and Beta fields. After the transaction, Equinor will hold 34.4% in Heidrun and 36.3% in Tyrihans, while Petoro will have 36.4% in Heidrun and 22.5% in Tyrihans. Equinor's ownership in Johan Castberg will be 46.3%, with Petoro holding 23.7%.

Discovery & Development

Russia has reportedly discovered massive oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory, potentially paving the way for drilling in the protected region. The reserves are estimated at 511 billion barrels, roughly ten times the North Sea's output over the past 50 years. This revelation came from surveys conducted by Rosgeo's vessel, the Alexander Karpinsky, and was presented to the British Commons Environment Audit Committee. While Russia claims the activities are for scientific research, experts argue it signals a move towards resource extraction, challenging the 1959 Antarctic Treaty's prohibition on oil developments.

Exxon and PETRONAS have identified close to 400 million barrels of recoverable oil in Suriname's deepwater blocks, potentially enabling an FPSO with a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day. Since 2019, Suriname has seen the discovery of nine deepwater fields, though none have yet progressed to development. Suriname's known resources now total over 2.4 billion barrels of oil and liquids and 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.

ExxonMobil, in collaboration with Azule Energy, Equinor, and Sonangol, has made an oil discovery at the Likembe-01 exploration well in Angola's Kizomba B development area, Block 15. Drilled between February and April 2024 in 1,200 meters of water, the well reached a depth of 3,013 meters and encountered Miocene-age reservoirs. The Angolan National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG) reported that ExxonMobil found high-quality sand packages containing oil and gas. This marks the first well drilled since Angola's government pledged to increase oil and gas investments under its "Incremental Production" project.