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The Death of Iran's President Sparked Speculation but Little Else


The death of Iranian President Raisi in a helicopter crash last weekend is not likely to have any immediate impact on the regime itself in terms of the proxy war with Israel, hyper-intense relations with the U.S., or throngs of activists hoping to seed some growth for change. 

The Iranian regime will maintain its current policies and activities without missing a beat. 

No blame has been laid as an investigation into the cause of the crash continued all week, most likely ruling out the development as being used for geopolitical leverage with either the U.S. or Israel. 

Speculation, of course, has soared, that either Israel or the U.S. engineered the crash, or that it was the work of Balochistan militants … or even that it was an inside job at a time when the Supreme Leader’s succession is on the agenda. In the end, it could have just been what it looks like - an accident, possibly helped along by aging helicopters deprived by sanctions of parts. 

With the momentum lost and the chaos this creates in the halls of power in Tehran, there is little opportunity now to create a geopolitical scenario out of Raisi’s death. Oil prices have already written the event off the books, responding upwards only briefly on Sunday following news of Raisi’s crash but losing traction soon afterward. 

The bigger question now shifts a bit away from Israel and toward the Gulf countries and a U.S. missile defense pact …

This week, American officials attended a summit…

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