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Europe's Gas Crisis Eases Slightly

1. US Crude Supply to Hit Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2023

- The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its outlook for US crude supply marginally downwards, now expecting output to rise by 640,000 b/d year-on-year to a total of 11.8 million b/d.

- At the same time, the EIA increased its pricing outlook for this year, now expecting the annual Brent average to come in at 74.95 per barrel, with WTI at 71.32 per barrel for 2022.

- This would mean that despite the overall conducive environment, the US will return to its pre-pandemic supply levels of 12.4 million b/d only by the end of 2023.

- Much to the chagrin of the Biden Administration, the EIA 2022 gasoline forecast stands at 3.06 per gallon, implying that high outright crude prices will keep gasoline high enough to trigger political concerns.

2. Power Price Surge Weighs on European Growth

- According to Bloomberg estimates, the ongoing power price spike in European countries could knock off 1% off Europe’s GDP unless the continent finds a way to tame prices. -

- TTF natural gas futures trade around €85 per MWh, equivalent to $30 per mmBtu, implying that the 300% wholesale gas price last year will most probably continue in 2022.

- Apart from being the main factor behind rising inflation in the European Union, already at 5% on an annualized basis, high power prices also trigger lower utilization rates at energy-intensive plants, making commodities…





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